Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical approach is as follows:

• To have minimal missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 2 of the NRL and Round 3 of the Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 2 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas and Lodge suspended, and Paix, Tanah Boyd, Turpin, Vudogo, Farnworth, and Bullemor unavailable as Elite Development Players, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 2 clash versus the North Queensland Cowboys would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Darius Boyd
4. Kontoni Staggs
5. Gehamat Shibasaki
6. Jack Bird
7. Sean O’Sullivan
8. Tevita Pangai Junior
9. Troy Dargan
10. Joe Ofahengaue
11. David Fifita
12. Jadyn Su’A
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Jamayne Isaako
15. George Fai
16. Tom Flegler
17. Matt Gillett

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical approach is as follows:

• To have minimal missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 1 of the NRL and Round 2 of the Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 2 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas and Lodge suspended, Fai injured, and Paix, Tanah Boyd, Turpin, Vudogo, Farnworth, and Bullemor unavailable as Elite Development Players, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 2 clash versus the North Queensland Cowboys would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Richie Kennar
3. Darius Boyd
4. Kontoni Staggs
5. Gehamat Shibasaki
6. Jack Bird
7. Sean O’Sullivan
8. Tevita Pangai Junior
9. Troy Dargan
10. Joe Ofahengaue
11. David Fifita
12. Corey Oates
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Jamayne Isaako
15. Jadyn Su’A
16. Tom Flegler
17. Sam Tagataese

Freddie08

The Broncos career of centre and wing option Jordan Kahu has come to an end, with the player being released by the Broncos to join the North Queensland Cowboy for the 2019 season.

A graduate of the Broncos under-20s team, the Kiwi international suffered numerous serious knee injuries during his early days at the Broncos, which effectively stripped the player of effective acceleration and speed.

While very safe under the high ball and a reasonable goal kicker, Kahu’s lack of mobility and poor tackling technique was regularly reflected in the player’s lack of productivity in terms of per game run metres and line breaks, and in his relatively high per match missed tackle count.

Specifically in 2018, Kahu averaged only 74 run metres, 3 missed tackle and 0 line breaks per match.

Contrasting Kahu’s on field performances last season with that of the club’s other centre and wing options, and the Kiwi finished last season as the Broncos’ 11th most productive centre/winger.

2018 productivity data – centres and wingers

With a number of more productive centre and wing options in the Broncos 2019 squad, the Broncos’ decision to release Kahu, while overdue, is a smart decision, both from a salary cap and squad management perspective.

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In recruitment news, the Broncos have announced the signing of centre/winger Richie Kennar (24) on a one year deal.

While relatively inexperienced, having only played 17 NRL games in his previous stints with the Melbourne Storm and the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Kennar has demonstrated impressive productivity in per game run metres and very few missed tackles per match.

Specifically in 2018, Kennar averaged 103 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 1 line break per match.

Contrasting Kennar’s on field performances last season with that of this new Broncos team mates, and the Victorian native would have finished the last season as the Broncos’ 4th most productive centre/winger.

2018 productivity data – centres and wingers

With Jonus Pearson’s off season departure to the St George-Illawarra Dragons, and Corey Allan’s departure to the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Kennar’s signing is an astute one for the Broncos, and based on his on field performances last season, the former Rabbitoh should be in line for a starting position as a centre or winger, when the Broncos take on the Storm in the season opener.

Freddie08

In recruitment news, the Broncos have announced the signing of experienced forward Shaun Fensom (30) on a one year deal.

While Fensom has a reputation as a hard worker, his signing is very much a questionable decision by the club given his offensive performances on the field were poor, averaging just 47 run metres, and 0 offloads per match. Positivity though Fensom only missed on average 1 tackle per match last season.

Contrasting Fensom’s on field performances last season with that of this new Broncos team mates, and the New South Welshman would have finished the last season as the Broncos’ 19th most productive forward.

With McGuire’s unexpected departure, the Broncos still need to recruit a replacement forward who averages at least 120 run metres per games, no more than 2 missed tackles and multiple offloads per match.

Fensom is not that and his signing is a poor use of the Broncos’ cap space.

Freddie08

In a huge boost to the Broncos’ 2019 premiership prospects, the club have announced the re-signing of outside back/forward Corey Oates (24) and forward Tevita Pangai Junior (22) on one year deals, forward Matt Lodge (23) on a two year deal and forward Patrick Carrigan (20) on a three year extension.

With the quartet making up 4 of the Broncos’ top 6 forwards in terms of on field productivity in the 2018 season, and Oates ranking as the most productive of all Broncos’ players from both the centre and winger, and forward positional groups, there retention was paramount.

2018 productivity data – forwards

2018 productivity data – centres and wingers

While it is great that the Broncos have been able to secure Carrigan until the end of 2022, given Lodge, Pangai Junior and Oates’ outstanding on field contribution last season, and Josh McGuire being released from the final 2 years of his contract to join the North Queensland Cowboys, it was hoped the Broncos would have been able to re-sign that trio on longer term deals. However, with consistently unproductive players such as Bird, Roberts, Kahu, Gillett and McCullough, utilising substantial salary cap space and tied to multi-year deals at the club, one year deals for Oates and Pangai Junior and a two year deal for Lodge was evidently all the Broncos could financially afford.

Those past poor recruitment and retention decisions by the Broncos, could make it similarly difficult for the club to re-sign Oates and Pangai Junior long term at the end of their 2019 contracts. Nevertheless, the retention of all 4 players is great news for the Broncos’ 2019 premiership prospects.

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Anthony Seibold’s tenure as the Broncos’ head coach will commence in 2019, after the club terminated the contract of incumbent coach Wayne Bennett, and secured the services of Seibold for 2019, following his immediate release by South Sydney.

The announcement made by the Broncos on 2 December, brings to an end a messy situation for the club.

Moving forward, Bennett’s departure and Seibold’s immediate arrival is a boost for the Broncos’ 2019 premiership hopes.

While Seibold was not my preferred option to replace Bennett (the Walker brothers), the now former South Sydney coach showed a lot of promise, tactically, in his first season in charge of the Rabbitohs, repeatedly stretching opposing defences horizontally through lateral ball movement, while also regularly using the powerful forwards at his disposal to progress the ball down field.

One of the biggest tactical challenges facing Seibold at the Broncos in 2019, is improving the productivity level of the Broncos’ forwards in terms of offloads.

With the vast majority of the players in the Broncos’ halves, hooker and fullback positional group not possessing the creative passing game of traditional halves, in order to generate line breaks through their slight of hand with the ball, but blessed with excellent footwork and acceleration, the Broncos need to generate a healthy number of offloads in each match to the create the second phase play and disorganisation in the opposition’s defence to allow the likes of Milford, Nikorima, Boyd, etc, to showcase their strengths and individually break the opposition’s defensive line or to create simpler line break assist opportunities.

In 2018, the Broncos forwards’ productivity in that facet of the game was unacceptably low, and it was no surprise to consequentially see the Broncos’ halves, hooker and fullback options, consistently struggle to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group, in the absence of regular second phase play.

Another significant challenge facing Seibold, is whether he has the mental fortitude to base his team selection on players’ on field productivity, and not their level of experience or reputation. One of Bennett’s biggest failing as the Broncos’ head coach was repeatedly selecting consistently unproductive but well known players (e.g. Boyd, Roberts, Kahu, McCullough, Thaiday, Glenn, Sims), while players who proved either in the NRL or Intrust Super Cup to be more productive (e.g. Shibasaki, Dargan, Carrigan, Seve, Pearson, Fai) were consistently overlooked. Seibold’s willingness to hold players to account based on their on field productivity, will go a long way to determining whether the new coach can extract success from a playing group that is predominately the same as what Bennett had at his disposal in 2018.

Those challenges aside, a change was necessary for the Broncos, who initially improved under Bennett, following Anthony Griffins’ rein, but then stagnated and regressed, with repeated poor team selections and a stubborn persistence with a tactical approach that failed to accentuate the strengths of the Broncos’ key playmakers, ultimately bringing Bennett undone.

It will be interesting to see how Seibold goes.

Freddie08

In a blow to the Broncos’ 2019 prospects, the Broncos have today announced the immediate departure of forward Josh McGuire to the North Queensland Cowboys.

The small forward has been consistently productive for the Broncos over a number of years, regularly producing in excess of 100 run metres per game. That said, McGuire’s lack of offloads per game and higher than desirable missed tackle count, coupled with the emergence of Haas, Carrigan, Lodge, Ofahengaue, Pangai Junior, Fifita and Fai, all of whom were more productive than McGuire during last season, makes McGuire’s departure somewhat more palatable.

While Broncos’ decision to cut ties with McGuire in order free up salary cap space to re-sign the likes of Oates, Lodge, and Pangai Junior to long term deals, is understandable at face value, the club’s decision to sacrifice one of their top 8 rotational forward in McGuire but re-sign the substantially less productive and defensively liable, Gillet, to a lucrative long-term contract, is down right baffling.

While Gillet missed the majority of last season due to injury, when he was fit and playing at the start of the season, his per game production of 77 run metres, 3 missed tackles and 0 offloads, was far inferior to that of McGuire (118 run metres, 3 missed tackles and 0 offloads).

In light of that, McGuire’s departure is another disappointing moment for the Broncos’ recruitment and retention team.

Obviously salary cap restraints mean the Broncos can’t retain all players. That said, the inferior on field performances this past season from the likes of Matt Gillett, Alex Glenn, Miles Taueli, Thomas Flegler, Patrick Mago, and even recently re-signed Sam Tagataese and Jayden Su’A, means the Broncos should have sought to move a number of those players on first before contemplating releasing any of their 8 most productive forwards, which includes McGuire.

The Broncos now face the problem of not only needing to re-sign the likes of Oates, Lodge and Pangai Junior, but also needing to find a direct replacement for McGuire, who possesses a proven track record of on field production equivalent to that of Moose.

The Broncos may want to start by looking at the likes of Nat Neale or Ben Shea (Ipswich Jets), Luke Page (Burleigh Bears), Oshae Tuiasau (Norths Devils), JJ Felise (not contracted) and Tui Kamikamaca (Melbourne Storm), to name a few.

Freddie08

The Broncos career of half, hooker and fullback option Todd Murphy has seemingly come to an end, with the player joining Melbourne Storm feeder club the Sunshine Coast Falcons for the 2019 season.

A graduate of the Broncos’ youth academy, Murphy was the Broncos’ 3rd most productive player amongst the club’s halves, hooker and fullback positional group in 2018.  While possessing a solid, albeit unspectacular, long range kicking game, Murphy’s creative production (line breaks and line break assists) and resilience in defence (missed tackles) last season were not at the required standard. As such, the Broncos decision not to re-sign the Sunshine Coast native is a justifiable one.

The challenge for the Broncos ahead of the 2019 season, is extracting more on field production from those players which will comprise the club’s halves, hooking and fullback positional group.

In season 2018, no player in the position group averaged a line break per 80 minute performance and only Milford and, New South Welshman, Dargan averaging a line break assist per match.

The lack of line break and line break assist production amongst the positional group was largely due to Bennett not employing tactics which best complimented the skill set of the club’s halves, hooking and fullback options.

With the vast majority of the players in the positional group not possessing the creative passing game of traditional halves, in order to generate line breaks through their slight of hand with the ball, but blessed with excellent footwork and acceleration, the Broncos needed to generate a healthy number of offloads in each match to the create the second phase play and disorganisation in the opposition’s defence to allow the likes of Milford, Nikorima, Boyd, etc, to showcase their strengths and individually break the opposition’s defensive line or to create simpler line break assist opportunities.

That said, in season 2018 the Broncos largely failed to generate the required offloads. As a consequence, mainstays Boyd, Milford, McCullough, Nikorima, and Bird, struggled to create.

With Bennett due to remain head coach of the club for the 2019 season, and renowned for his conservative attacking approach, it is highly unlikely that Bennett will employ tactics which best complimented the skill set of the club’s halves, hooking and fullback options in season 2019.

Positively though, Milford did significantly improved this season in terms of his defensive resolve and kicking productivity (both in terms of kicking metres and forced drop outs per 80 minute performance).

Off season recruit Sean O’Sullivan, who averaged 1 line break assist, 124 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out per match in season 2018, should also help the Broncos’ creativity next season.

That said, the offensive contribution in 2018 from the likes of Boyd, Isaako, Nona, Bird and McCullough was dire, and defensive effort of Scarlett, Dargan, Murphy and Nikorima, was not acceptable. With Murphy now gone, the retention of any of those players in the Broncos’ halves, hooking and fullback positional group needs to be seriously questioned ahead of the 2019 season. While Boyd and Isaako should survive thanks to their productivity, albeit slightly underwhelming, in the centre and wing positional group, offloading McCullough, Bird and Nona, at a minimum, would appear to be a logical decision.

Deploying Milford, Nikorima, Scarlett, and Dargan, in an environment where the Broncos’ forwards regularly offload the ball to create second phase play, would go a long way to determining whether those individuals can practically and consistently apply their inherent ball running skill sets to regularly generate much needed line breaks. That said, Nikorima, Scarlett and Dargan, will all need to significantly improve their defensive resilience and consistency, to justify their retention.

Freddie08

In recruitment news, the Broncos have announced the re-signing of experienced forward Sam Tagataese (31) on a one year deal.

While Tagataese’s contribution off the field last season was excellent, his re-signing is a somewhat questionable decision by the club given his offensive performances on the field were underwhelming, averaging 91 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match.

Contrasting his on field performances with that of this fellow forwards and Tagataese finished the season as the Broncos’ 11th most productive forward.

While his retention is a somewhat questionable use of the Broncos’ cap space, Tagataese’s on field productive was vastly superior to that of Gillett and Glenn both of whom are on long term deals with the club.

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