The Brisbane Broncos have confirmed that season 2019 will be Wayne Bennett’s final year coaching at the club.

Notoriously silent Broncos’ Chairman Karl Morris made the announcement on 25 September in a move designed to stop the conjecture about Bennett’s future at Red Hill beyond next season.

Personally, I think it is a good move from the Broncos. Bennett has consistently demonstrated, during his second stint at the club, key tactical and squad management flaws in his approach, which have undermined the Broncos’ prospects of achieving the required consistency in their on field performances to deliver Premiership success.

With regards to a key flaw in Bennett’s approach to squad management, Bennett consistently selects players in the 17 man match day squad, based on his personal relationships as opposed to individual players’ on field production. This has resulted in consistently underperforming players such as Boyd, Roberts, Kahu, Bird, McCullough, Thaiday, Glenn, Gillet, Sims, and Mago, being repeatedly selected at the expense of more productive members of the squad (e.g. Pearson, Shibasaki, Dargan, Fifita, Haas, Fai, Carrigan). With boom youngsters Allan and Seve leaving the club recently due to a lack of first team opportunities, Bennett’s flawed approach to squad management is also hurting the Broncos’ ability to retain their burgeoning young players.

In terms of key tactical flaws in Bennett’s approach, he consistently requires his players to adopt a low risk, high completion, but rather aimless plan of attack, when it comes to creating line break and line break assist opportunities. Essentially, Bennett relies on his players giving the ball to Boyd, Milford or Nikorima, and hoping they can create a line break or line break assist opportunity, without any supporting build up play. Despite that tactical approach consistently failing, Bennett has shown no signs of changing.

In addition to Bennett’s aimless attacking tactics, is his misguided approach to the team’s defence. While consistently requiring the likes of Milford and Nikorima to defend in the line is always going to result in a higher than desired missed tackle rate, deploying the overly aggressive but notorious miss tackler Gillett, and the defensively woeful Glenn, next to the halves, unnecessarily exposes the Broncos’ defensive weaknesses. Add Bird and Kahu’s poor tackling technique, and the Broncos edge defence has been consistently poor for a number of seasons. Despite this, Bennett has failed to address this glaring weakness of the Broncos.

With Bennett’s long term future at the club determined, the big question now becomes, who do the Broncos target to replace Bennett, after season 2019?

While the club have publicly targeted Bellamy and Green, who I would argue are superior recruiters and tacticians to Bennett, and I would also include Robinson and Flanagan in that category, beyond those coaches it’s difficult to see who is superior to Bennett.

McGregor has been unsuccessful at the Dragons, as has Kearny at the Eels and subsequently the Warriors. Cleary has been unsuccessful during his spells at the Warriors, Penrith and the West Tigers, and according to all reports is due to return to the Panthers. Stuart is entrenched as the Raiders head coach. Brown is invested in a long term project at the Knights. Pay had a poor first season at the Bulldogs, as did Brennan at the Titans, Barrett at the Sea Eagles, and Arthur at the Eels.

Outside of the current batch of NRL coaches, Maguire was sacked from the Rabbitohs because of his failed tactics, and Walters, the Walker Brothers and Demetriou, are all unproven at an NRL level.

One much publicised candidate, Anthony Seibold, showed a lot of promise, tactically, in his first season in charge of the Rabbitohs. However, with Seibold having such limited NRL experience and Shane Richardson primarily responsible for recruitment at South Sydney, its hard to tell how much of the credit for the Rabbitohs performances this past season should go to Richardson as opposed to Seibold, and whether Seibold’s tactical approach can, season on season, deliver consistently productive performances from the players he is coaching.

Considering the playing strengths and weaknesses of the Broncos’ contracted players, and in particular the club’s halves, hooker and fullback options, I personally think the Walker Brothers’ tactical approach would atleast accentuate the attacking attributes of Broncos’ key playmakers Milford, Nikorima and Bird.

While those players do not possess the creative passing game of traditional halves in order to generate line breaks through their slight of hand with the ball, they are blessed with excellent footwork and acceleration. To capitalise on those players’ skill set, the Broncos needed to generate a healthy number of offloads in each match, to create the second phase play and disorganisation in the opposition’s defence to give the likes of Milford, Nikorima and Bird the best opportunity to showcase their strengths to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or to create simpler line break assist opportunities.

This is precisely how the Walker Brothers’ like their sides to attack, with their current club Ipswich, and the Jets forwards regularly topping the offload statistics in the Intrust Super Cup, and key play makers, Jayden Connors, Michael Purcell and Wes Conlon, regularly in the leading group of players in the Intrust Super Cup in terms of line breaks. That’s not to say the Walker Brothers’ attacking approach is reckless, as the Jets’ forwards also regularly top the run metres statistics in the Intrust Super Cup.

With the likes of Milford, Nikorima and Bird, contracted long term at the Broncos, and forwards Haas, Carrigan, Lodge, Pangai Junior and Fifita, all capable of producing the required run metres and offloads, the Walker Brothers seem an ideal fit.

Freddie08

With the Broncos’ 2018 season done and dusted, following their premature exit in Week 1 of the finals, it’s time to examine the Broncos squad in preparation for the 2019 season. In particular, it’s an opportune time to identify which players from the Broncos’ currently contracted squad, should the club retain, and which players should the Broncos seek to move on, based upon the players’ on field production after 25 rounds of the NRL and 24 rounds of the Intrust Super Cup in the 2018 season.

In assessing the respective players’ on field production in season 2018, each player is allocated into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their perceived versatility).  Those positional categories consist of:

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical approach is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To generate multiple line breaks and line break assists per game from each player within the halves, hooker and fullback positional group, and have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst that positional group.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 25 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Starting with the Broncos’ forward options, it was a relatively productive season from the Broncos’ forwards, with a number of the club’s younger forwards (Haas, Carrigan, Ofahengaue, Pangai Junior, Fifita, Fai and Su’A) and the recruited Lodge, along with seasoned players, Oates and McGuire, proving to be highly productive in terms of run metres gained per 40 minute performance, and minimal missed tackles per game (with only Fai recording more than 2 missed tackles).

That said, the productivity level of all the Broncos’ forwards in terms of offloads per 40 minute performance was unacceptably low, and it was no surprise to consequentially see the Broncos’ halves, hooker and fullback options, consistently struggle to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group, in the absence of regular second phase play. It is a facet of the Broncos’ attack the forwards will need to substantially improve upon in season 2019.

While the Broncos’ younger forwards showed plenty of promise in terms of their on field productivity, a number of the club’s more established and experience forwards (Tagataese, Sims, Thaiday, Gillet and Glenn) were unacceptably unproductive this season, particular in run metres gained and/or missed tackles per 40 minute performance. Fortunately for the Broncos 2019 prospects, that unproductive forward cohort includes off contract Tagataese, the departing Sims and retiring Thaiday. Surprisingly though, that unproductive forward cohort also includes Gillet and Glenn. Sentiment aside, if the Broncos are serious about wanting to improve their playing group ahead of season 2019, some tough decisions will need to be made by the club regarding the experienced albeit underperforming Gillet and Glenn.

If the Broncos were to move on or not re-sign the likes of Gillet, Glenn, Funaki, Taueli, Flegler, Mago, and/or Tagataese, forwards the Broncos may want to consider pursuing include the following (along with their relative 2018 performance metrics):

Centres and wingers

In terms of the club’s contracted centre and wing options, there was only a couple of players who could legitimately lay claim to having a productive season in 2018.  Those players consisted of Oates, Shibasaki, Pearson and youngster Allan, who is due to join the Rabbitohs in 2019. Despite their goal kicking exploits, Staggs and Isaako’s production in terms of run metres and line breaks per 80 minute performance, were underwhelming, as was Boyd, who failed to crack the 100 run metres per 80 minute performance metric. While the likes of Boyd, Staggs and Isaako, were underwhelming, the lack of production from Opacic, Roberts, Kahu and big money recruit Bird, was simply unacceptable.

While Opacic has signed for the Cowboys for season 2019, the Broncos seriously need to consider offloading Roberts, Kahu and Bird ahead of the 2019 season. As for Pangai, while the older brother of Tevita, has undoubted potential to be an extremely damaging, metre eating winger, much like former Bronco Daniel Vidot, Pangai’s ball handling skills are simply not at the required level and I fear he would be a considerable liability if the Broncos were to deploy him on the opposite wing to Oates.

If the Broncos were to move on or not re-sign the likes of Roberts, Kahu, Bird, and/or Pangai, wing or centre options the Broncos may want to consider pursuing include the following (along with their relative 2018 performance metrics):

Halves, hooker and fullback

In the halves, hooking and fullback positional group, on field production has been an issue all season, with no player in the position group averaging a line break per 80 minute performance and only Milford and, New South Welshman, Dargan averaging a line break assist per match.

The lack of line break and line break assist production amongst the positional group was largely due to Bennett not employing tactics which best complimented the skill set of the club’s halves, hooking and fullback options.

With the vast majority of the players in the positional group not possessing the creative passing game of traditional halves, in order to generate line breaks through their slight of hand with the ball, but blessed with excellent footwork and acceleration, the Broncos needed to generate a healthy number of offloads in each match to the create the second phase play and disorganisation in the opposition’s defence to allow the likes of Milford, Nikorima, Boyd, etc, to showcase their strengths and individually break the opposition’s defensive line or to create simpler line break assist opportunities.

As highlighted in the assessment of the Broncos’ forwards, the Broncos largely failed to generate the required offloads this season. As a consequence, mainstays Boyd, Milford, McCullough, Nikorima, and Bird, struggled to create.

Positively though, Milford did significantly improved this season in terms of his defensive resolve and kicking productivity (both in terms of kicking metres and forced drop outs per 80 minute performance).

That said, the offensive contribution from the likes of Boyd, Isaako, Nona, Bird, and McCullough was dire, and defensive effort of Scarlett, Dargan, Murphy and Nikorima, was not acceptable. The retention of any of those players in the Broncos’ halves, hooking and fullback positional group needs to be seriously questioned ahead of the 2019 season. While Boyd and Isaako should survive thanks to their productivity, albeit slightly underwhelming, in the centre and wing positional group, offloading McCullough, Bird and Nona, at a minimum, would appear to be a logical decision.

Deploying Milford, Nikorima, Scarlett, Dargan, and Murphy, in an environment where the Broncos’ forwards regularly offload the ball to create second phase play, would go a long way to determining whether those individuals can practically and consistently apply their inherent ball running skill sets to regularly generate much needed line breaks. That said, Nikorima, Scarlett, Dargan, and Murphy, would all need to significantly improve their defensive resilience and consistency, to justify their retention.

If the Broncos were to move on or not re-sign the likes of McCullough, Bird, Nona, Nikorima, Scarlett, Dargan and/or Murphy, halves, hooking and fullback options the Broncos may want to consider pursuing include the following (along with their relative 2018 performance metrics):

Final Thoughts

Overall, it was a disappointing season for the Broncos. Too many consistently unproductive players were consistently selected (e.g. Boyd, Roberts, Kahu, Nikorima, McCullough, Thaiday, Glenn, Sims, Mago), while players who proved either in the NRL or Intrust Super Cup to be more productive (e.g. Shibasaki, Pearson, Allan, Dargan, Carrigan, Fai) were consistently overlooked.

In addition, the Broncos failed to employ attacking tactics which best complimented the skill set of the club’s halves, hooking and fullback options. As a consequence, mainstays Boyd, Milford, McCullough, Nikorima, and Bird, struggled to create.

Responsibility for both of those failings rest squarely on the shoulders of Bennett. While it is a positive decision that the Broncos are not going to renew Bennett’s contract beyond 2019, it is concerning that the wonderful potential of a significant portion of the current squad which is at Bennett disposal will again be misused in season 2019.

Freddie08

A matter of weeks after penning a two year extension with the Broncos, the club have announced that centre/winger Tom Opacic is to depart the club at season’s end to take up a deal with the North Queensland Cowboys.

The Broncos’ original decision to re-sign he Redcliffe native was a questionable one, given his offensive performances this season have been have been underwhelming, and there are a number of vastly more productive centres and wingers currently on the Broncos roster.

After 25 Rounds of the NRL and 24 Rounds of the Intrust Super Cup, Opacic has only averaged 85 run metres and no line breaks per 80 minute performance.

While he has been very strong defensively, missing only 1 tackle per 80 minute performance, of those currently contracted wing and/centre options at the club, Opacic has only been the 8th most productive player for the Broncos this season.

His departure is a smart salary cap move by the Broncos and should allow them to reinvest the money in more productive players.

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical approach is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 25 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Finals Week 1 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Su’A, Gillett, Savelio, Pearson and Bird unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Finals Week 1 clash versus the Dragons would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Corey Allan
4. Kontoni Staggs
5. Gehamat Shibasaki
6. Todd Murphy
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. Joe Ofahengaue
11. David Fifita
12. Tevita Pangai Junior
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Jamayne Isaako
15. George Fai
16. Josh McGuire
17. Sam Tagataese

Freddie08

Reports out of Sydney today are saying that Jack Bird is unhappy at the Broncos and is attempting to organise a move back to New South Wales and ideally the Sharks.

This follows reports a month or so ago that Broncos’ head of recruitment Peter Nolan was attempting to organise a trade with the Parramatta Eels, which would have involved Bird joining the Eels and Mitch Moses moving to the Broncos for season 2019.

While Bird has been suffering from a sternum injury for the majority of the season, his on field performances for the Broncos, when fit, have been hugely disappointing, both as a halves or centre/wing option.

Performance data after Round 22

To put it bluntly, Bird was a bad recruitment decision by the Broncos. An average centre at best, Bird struggled for the Sharks last season and has continued that poor form for the Broncos this season. While all clubs make some dud recruitment decisions from time to time, the Broncos’ decision to sign Bird on significant money ($750,000+ per season), and without a history of excellent on field production, was a big blunder by the Broncos’ recruitment team Peter Nolan, Darren Lockyer and Wayne Bennett.

Credit to Peter Nolan though for owning his part in that decision and trying to explore options to trade Bird to another club.

Fingers crossed some other club will be dumb enough to take Bird and a sizeable portion of this salary off the Broncos’ books for season 2019.

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical approach is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 22 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 22 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Su’A, Gillett, Savelio, Pearson and Bird unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 23 clash versus the Rabbitohs would appear to be:

1. Sam Scarlett
2. Corey Oates
3. Corey Allan
4. Jamayne Isaako
5. Gehamat Shibasaki
6. Anthony Milford
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Todd Murphy
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Junior
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Darius Boyd
15. David Fifita
16. Josh McGuire
17. Sam Tagataese

Freddie08

In recruitment news, the Broncos have today announced the re-signing of young Queensland born outside backs Tom Opacic (23) and Gehamat Shibasaki (19) on two year deals.

While Opacic’s re-signing is a somewhat questionable decision by the club given his offensive performances this season have been have been underwhelming, Shibasaki on the other hand has been a phenomenon for Norths Devils in the Intrust Super Cup this season, averaging 153 run metres per game and only 2 missed tackles per match.

Following the inexplicable decision of the club to release the enormously talented Marion Seve to the Melbourne Storm earlier in the season, securing Shibasaki’s signature was vital for the Broncos.

Shibasaki, along with Corey Oates and Jonus Pearson have been far and away the most productive outside backs at the club this season, with the more fancied internal rivals Boyd, Isaako, Roberts, Kahu and Bird repeatedly underperforming.

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 21 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 22 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Pangai Junior, Su’A, Gillett, Savelio unavailable through injury and McGuire suspended, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 22 clash versus the Cowboys would appear to be:

1. Sam Scarlett
2. Corey Oates
3. Jonus Pearson
4. Jamayne Isaako
5. Gehamat Shibasaki
6. Anthony Milford
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Todd Murphy
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. David Fifita
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Corey Allan
15. Korbin Sims
16. Patrick Mago
17. Sam Tagataese

Freddie08

In reports out today, Wayne Bennett has apparently confirmed that Tevita Pangai Junior has verbally agreed to a new two year deal with the club, commencing in season 2019.

While the deal won’t be formalised until later in the year, when Pangai Junior’s contract with his existing player manager expires, the apparent agreement he has struck with the club represents a solid retention effort from the Broncos.

Pangai Junior has proven himself this season to be a productive forward (both in terms of run metres and offloads) as well
as being solid in defence (averaging only 2 missed tackles per game).

 2018 performance data after Round 19

That said, then Broncos desperately need to lock down Oates, Carrigan and Lodge to long term contracts.

Lodge and Oates have been far and away the Broncos most productive contributors in the NRL this season in terms of run metres. The team would have and would significantly struggle to make it out of their own half without the carries of those two players.

Carrigan on the other hand, like Haas, has been absolutely dominating the opposition in the Intrust Super Cup, averaging 139 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match.

Securing the long term future of those 3 players should be the Broncos’ priority now that Haas’ future is secured.

Freddie08

Broncos second-rower Matt Gillett has today announced that he has re-signing with the club on a four-year deal.

While the contract will likely see the 29 year old Gillett finish his NRL career at the Broncos, the length the contract and reported financial commitment from the Broncos ($750,000 a season), doesn’t seem a smart decision by the club.

Objectively, Gillett’s on field performances in recent seasons has been poor. While the New South Wales born second-rower can come up with a big hit now and then, it doesn’t compensate for the number of tackles he misses (a shocking average of 4 a game over the past two seasons) and his lack of run metres for an 80 minute player (a disappointing average of 87 metres per match over the past two season).

Performance data after Round 19

To be blunt, Gillett’s re-signing seems like a waste of precious cap space by the Broncos.

I’m really hoping the Broncos don’t lose the soon to be off contract Oates, Lodge and Pangai Jnr because of the amount of cap space tied up in the persistently underperforming Gillett, Glenn, Bird and McCullough.

Freddie08