In reports out today, Wayne Bennett has apparently confirmed that Tevita Pangai Junior has verbally agreed to a new two year deal with the club, commencing in season 2019.

While the deal won’t be formalised until later in the year, when Pangai Junior’s contract with his existing player manager expires, the apparent agreement he has struck with the club represents a solid retention effort from the Broncos.

Pangai Junior has proven himself this season to be a productive forward (both in terms of run metres and offloads) as well
as being solid in defence (averaging only 2 missed tackles per game).

 2018 performance data after Round 19

That said, then Broncos desperately need to lock down Oates, Carrigan and Lodge to long term contracts.

Lodge and Oates have been far and away the Broncos most productive contributors in the NRL this season in terms of run metres. The team would have and would significantly struggle to make it out of their own half without the carries of those two players.

Carrigan on the other hand, like Haas, has been absolutely dominating the opposition in the Intrust Super Cup, averaging 139 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match.

Securing the long term future of those 3 players should be the Broncos’ priority now that Haas’ future is secured.

Freddie08

Broncos second-rower Matt Gillett has today announced that he has re-signing with the club on a four-year deal.

While the contract will likely see the 29 year old Gillett finish his NRL career at the Broncos, the length the contract and reported financial commitment from the Broncos ($750,000 a season), doesn’t seem a smart decision by the club.

Objectively, Gillett’s on field performances in recent seasons has been poor. While the New South Wales born second-rower can come up with a big hit now and then, it doesn’t compensate for the number of tackles he misses (a shocking average of 4 a game over the past two seasons) and his lack of run metres for an 80 minute player (a disappointing average of 87 metres per match over the past two season).

Performance data after Round 19

To be blunt, Gillett’s re-signing seems like a waste of precious cap space by the Broncos.

I’m really hoping the Broncos don’t lose the soon to be off contract Oates, Lodge and Pangai Jnr because of the amount of cap space tied up in the persistently underperforming Gillett, Glenn, Bird and McCullough.

Freddie08

In team selection news, Darius Boyd has told the media that he would be happy to be deployed in the centres for the remainder of his NRL career if that is what’s best for the team.

From a purely defensive perspective, deploying Boyd (1 missed tackle per game) in the left centre position is a good thing for the Broncos.

While Milford’s defence has substantially improved this season (2 missed tackles per game), Alex Glenn’s poor tackling technique and an average of 4 missed tackles per game, is a huge defensive liability for the Broncos.

That said, from an offensive perspective Boyd (who is averaging 99 run metres and 0 line breaks per game this season) is significantly less productive than a number of his internal centre and winger rivals.

 2018 performance data after Round 19

For that reason, I would much rather see the likes of Shibasaki (who is averaging 153 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 0 line breaks per game) or Pearson (who is averaging 118 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 line break per match) deployed in that left centre position.

Freddie08

In recruitment news, the Broncos have announced the re-signing of New Zealand born second rower Jaydn Su’A on a two-year deal.

It is a solid re signing for the Broncos and follows on from the retention of boom prop Payne Haas.

While their on field production this season would indicate Haas, Lodge, Carrigan, Pangai Jnr and Fai should be the starting 5 forwards in season 2019, Su’A, Ofahengaue and McGuire would form a strong bench.

2018 performance data after Round 19

Given the stand out performances of Lodge and Pangai Jnr this season and both players being off contract at season’s end, it is somewhat of a surprise that the Broncos have prioritised re-signing Su’A over those two players, who have both proven themselves to be far more productive on the field.

Then again this is the same recruitment team that in the last 7 months has spent unnecessary cap space on re-signing persistently underperforming edge forwards Alex Glenn and Matt Gillett.

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Jamayne Isaako, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 19 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 20 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Bird, Su’A, Haas, Gillett, Savelio and Taueli unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 20 clash versus the Sharks would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Jonus Pearson
4. Jamayne Isaako
5. Gehamat Shibasaki
6. Sam Scarlett
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Jnr
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Darius Boyd
15. Josh McGuire
16. David Fifita
17. Sam Tagataese

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Kontoni Staggs, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 15 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 16 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Sims, Gillett, Savelio and Taueli unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 16 clash versus the Raiders would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Marion Seve
4. Gehamat Shibaski
5. Jonus Pearson
6. Sam Scarlett
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Jnr
13. Josh McGuire
14. Jamayne Isaako
15. Sam Tagataese
16. Joe Ofahengaue
17. David Fifita

Freddie08

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Kontoni Staggs, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 13 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 8 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Sims, Gillett, Savelio and Taueli unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 14 clash versus the Storm would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Marion Seve
4. Gehamat Shibaski
5. Jonus Pearson
6. Sam Scarlett
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Jnr
13. Jos McGuire
14. Corey Allan
15. Sam Tagataese
16. Joe Ofahengaue
17. David Fifita

Freddie08

Another unconvincing victory for the Broncos, as they triumphed 18– 10 against an unlucky Parramatta Eels side at Suncorp Stadium.

In terms of the Broncos’ squad for the match, Nikorima and Milford continued their respective roles in the halves, despite both players underperforming this season. In the outside backs, Kahu, who was cleared to play again after suffering a broken jaw in round 1, partnered Roberts in the centres, with Isaako and the consistently impressive Oates, once again deployed on the wings. Despite significantly underperforming this season, the Broncos also persisted with Boyd and McCullough in the fullback and hooking roles. In the second row, the Broncos again went with the improving Su’A and the energetic Pangai Junior, with the hardworking and defensively solid Ofahengaue filling the lock role. In the front row, the Broncos persisted with the productive Lodge and underperforming Thaiday. On the bench, the Broncos handed a richly deserved debut to Fai, and for the second week in a row, gave opportunities to Tagataese, Mago and Staggs, who have all impressed with their performances in the Intrust Super Cup this season.

As for the Broncos’ on field performance versus the Roosters, the Broncos’ defence was again terrible, as the home side amassed 41 missed tackles.

The chief culprits were 7 individual Broncos players who each missed at least 3 tackles (Ofahengaue (3), Kahu, Milford, Thaiday and Su’A (4), Lodge (5) and Pangai Junior (6)).

While a good portion of the team’s defending was unacceptable, credit needs to be given to Isaako, Nikorima, and Mago who each only missed 1 tackle for the match, while Tagataese, Staggs and Fai did not miss a tackle.

In attack, Oates (248), Lodge (190), Pangai Junior (173), Ofahengaue (136), Su’A (136) and Kahu (116) were excellent in terms of their contribution to the Broncos’ go forward, amassing well in excess of 100 run metres each. While Tagataese, Staggs, Mago and Fai were only afforded 22, 20, 20 and 14 minutes of game time respectively, Isaako (99) underwhelmed, and the production level of Roberts (74) and Thaiday (70) was unacceptable.

The repeated lack of run metres from the likes of Thaiday and Roberts and Isaako and the nepotism the Broncos have shown in refusing to give opportunities to the likes of Shibasaki, Seve and Carrigan, and give increased game time to Tagataese and Fai, despite all five players excelling in the Intrust Super Cup, is very disappointing.

In terms of offloads, it was another disappointing effort from the Broncos, with only 4 offloads from their 37 sets for the match.

Once again, the problem with the 4 offloads the Broncos did make, was that the players simply failed to capitalise on the line break opportunities those offloads created.

That is:

• McCullough, who was often the recipient of the offloads, failed to subsequently challenge the opposition’s defensive line;
• Milford, Nikorima and Boyd didn’t get close enough to the ruck to take receipt of the offloads and attempt to break the line with their speed and footwork;
• following the offloads, the Broncos failed to quickly shift the ball laterally to give their centres and wingers the opportunity to break the opposition’s stretched defence.

The lack of offloads and Broncos’ inability to capitalise on the offloads they made, kept the Eels in the contest throughout, as the Broncos spine struggled to create (only 1 line break assist from Nikorima).

In terms of the Broncos’ kicking game versus the Eels, the Broncos kicked for a whopping 774 metres, but only executed 4 grubber kicks, from which they failed to force a drop out.

While the contribution of Boyd (0 kicking metres and 0 grubber kicks) was again unacceptable, Milford (490 kicking metres and 2 grubbed kicks) and Nikorima (174 kicking metres and 1 grubber kick) were excellent, and McCullough (88 kicking metres and 0 grubber kicks) delivered his best kicking performance of the season.

Reducing the Broncos over reliance on Milford in terms of their kicking game, makes the Broncos a far more threatening prospect in attack. While Boyd and McCullough, in particular, need to improved their kicking contribution, if they are to be repeatedly selected in the fullback and hooking role, Nikorima’s kicking contribution versus the Eels, as Milford’s halves partner, was very impressive.

Overall, it was an engrossing match to watch, largely due to both teams’ poor defensive performances and both teams’ poor attack, keeping the contest competitive until close to the final whistle

That said, as a Broncos fan who is searching for the team to:

• employ an attacking style which both plays to the strengths of its key playmakers and is able to regularly generate line break and line break assist opportunities; and
• consistently demonstrate a certain level of resistance in defence (no player with more than 2 missed tackles per match);

the Broncos performance versus the Eels was another disappointing effort from the Brisbane club.

Freddie08

The stats and images referenced in this post are sourced from http://www.nrl.com.

A much needed, albeit unconvincing, victory for the Broncos as they overcame the Roosters 28– 22 at Suncorp Stadium.

In terms of the Broncos’ squad for the match, with Bird unavailable due to injury and otherwise out of form, Nikorima and Milford retained their respective roles in the halves and Opacic continued to partner Roberts in the centres. Isaako and the impressive Oates were once again deployed on the wings. Despite significantly underperforming this season, the Broncos also persisted with Boyd and McCullough in the fullback and hooking roles. In the second row, the Broncos went with the improving Su’A and the energetic Pangai Junior, with the hardworking and defensively solid Ofahengaue filling the lock role. In the front row, the Broncos persisted with the productive Lodge and underperforming Thaiday. On the bench, the Broncos retained the underperforming Sims and elected to give opportunities to Tagataese, Mago and Staggs, who have all impressed with their performances in the Intrust Super Cup this season.

As for the Broncos’ on field performance versus the Roosters, the Broncos’ defence was again terrible, as the home side amassed 48 missed tackles.

The chief culprits were 9 individual Broncos players who each missed at least 3 tackles (McCullough, Pangai Junior, Su’A, Ofahengaue and Staggs (3), Boyd, Nikorima, Thaiday and Sims (4), and Roberts (5)).

While the vast majority of the team’s defending was deplorable, credit needs to be given to Oates, Isaako, Milford and Lodge, who each only missed 1 tackle for the match, while Tagataese was the lone Bronco not to miss a tackle.

In attack, Pangai Junior (182), Oates (147), Ofahengaue (133), Lodge (131), Roberts (127), Su’A and Isaako (126) were excellent in terms of their contribution to the Broncos’ go forward, amassing well in excess of 100 run metres each. While Opacic only lasted 2 minutes before succumbing to an injury which ended his involvement, and Tagataese and Mago were only afforded 21 and 14 minutes of game time respectively, Sims (91) and Thaiday (79) both underwhelmed with their respective efforts and the production level of Staggs (64) was unacceptable.

The repeated lack of run metres from the likes of Thaiday and Sims in particular, and the nepotism the Broncos have shown in refusing to give opportunities to the likes of Carrigan and Fai, and give increased game time to Tagataese, despite all three players excelling in the Intrust Super Cup, is very disappointing.

In terms of offloads, it was another disappointing effort from the Broncos, with only 9 offloads from their 38 sets for the match.

Ironically, of the 9 offloads the Broncos did manage to make, 1 resulted in a line break and a try to Staggs. The problem with the other 8 offloads the Broncos made, was that the players simply failed to capitalise on the line break opportunities those offloads created.

That is:

• McCullough, who was often the recipient of the offloads, failed to subsequently challenge the opposition’s defensive line;
• Milford, Nikorima and Boyd didn’t get close enough to the ruck to take receipt of the offloads and attempt to break the line with their speed and footwork;
• following the offloads, the Broncos failed to quickly shift the ball laterally to give their centres and wingers the opportunity to break the opposition’s stretched defensive line.

While the lack of offloads didn’t ultimately prevent the Broncos from scoring points against the Roosters, there are major doubts as to whether the Broncos could repeatedly score tries via a number of those same attacking plays match after match (e.g. a brilliant in and away move from Roberts for Isaako’s try, an amazing length of the field run from Roberts for a try of his own, and a sensational broken play run from Isaako at the death).

In terms of the Broncos’ kicking game versus the Roosters, the Broncos kicked for a total of 460 metres, and executed 6 grubber kicks, from which they forced 1 drop out.

While Milford was an excellent contributor with 364 kicking metres, Nikorima’s 63 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out was underwhelming, and the contribution of Boyd (0 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs) and McCullough (0 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs) was unacceptable.

The Broncos over reliance on Milford in terms of their kicking game, makes the Broncos a far less threatening prospect in attack, and is an aspect of the Broncos’ attacking strategy, which Boyd and McCullough, in particular, need to improved their contribution to, if they are to be repeatedly selected in the fullback and hooking role.

Overall, it was an exciting match to watch, largely due to some spectacular tries scored by both sides and both teams’ poor defensive performances.

Whilst an entertaining spectacle, as a Broncos fan who is searching for the team to:

• employ an attacking style which both plays to the strengths of its key playmakers and is able to regularly generate line break and line break assists opportunities; and
• consistently demonstrate a certain level of resistance in defence (no player with more than 2 missed tackles per match);

the Broncos performance versus the Roosters was disappointing.

Freddie08

The stats and images referenced in this post are sourced from http://www.nrl.com.

The Broncos have announced the following preliminary side to take on the Roosters at Suncorp Stadium:

1. Darius Boyd
2. Corey Oates
3. James Roberts
4. Tom Opacic
5. Jamayne Isaako
6. Anthony Milford
7. Kodi Nikorima
8. Matt Lodge
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Sam Thaiday
11. Tevita Pangai Junior
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Sam Tagataese
15. Gehamat Shibasaki
16. Korbin Sims
17. Patrick Mago

Reaction

Injuries to Bird, Glenn and Haas, versus Manly, and the ongoing absence of Gillett and McGuire (also due to injuries), has finally forced the Broncos to look outside their favoured 17 man match day squad for the clash versus the Roosters. Specifically, the Broncos have elected to give opportunities to Shibasaki, Tagataese and Mago, who have been performing well in the Intrust Super Cup for the Norths Devils and Souths-Logan Magpies respectively. While Shibasaki, Tagataese and Mago’s inclusion in the match day squad is great news for the players and deserved reward for their consistently productive performances in the Intrust Super Cup, it is disappointing that:

• Shibasaki (who is averaging 137 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 line break per match for the Norths Devils) has only made the bench, while less productive centres and wingers are starting (i.e. Roberts (who is averaging 78 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 line break per game), Isaako (who is averaging 87 run metres, 1 missed tackles and 0 line breaks per match) and Opacic (who is averaging 58 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 line breaks per game));
• Carrigan (who is averaging 125 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Wynnum Manly Sea Eagles) and Fai (who is averaging 114 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies), have once again missed out on selection, in favour of the less productive Thaiday (who is averaging 57 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per match), Su’A (who is averaging 87 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game) and even Ofahengaue (who is averaging 102 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per match);
• Tagataese (who is averaging 96 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Norths Devils) has missed selection in the starting line-up, despite outperforming Thaiday (who is averaging 57 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per match), Su’A (who is averaging 87 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game) and even Ofahengaue (who is averaging 102 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per match); and
• Mago (who is averaging 91 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 0 offloads per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies) has missed selection in the starting line-up, despite significantly outperforming Thaiday (who is averaging 57 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per game), so far this season.

The continued non-selection of the Broncos’ most productive centre/ winger in Seve (who is averaging 148 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies), and the Broncos’ preference to select the club’s 9th (Isaako), 10th (Roberts) and 11th (Opacic) most productive centre/winger, over Pearson (the club’s 4th most productive option, who is averaging 115 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per game for the Redcliffe Dolphins), is perplexing.

Outside of the forward and centre and winger positional groups, Boyd and McCullough’s continued selection over Scarlett and Dargan, in the halves, hooker and fullback contingent, is baffling.

Dargan (who is averaging 0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 1 missed tackle, 145 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out per match for the Norths Devils) and Scarlett (who is averaging 0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 2 missed tackles, 227 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies) are clearly outperforming McCullough (who is averaging 0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 1 missed tackle, 48 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per match) and Boyd (who is averaging 0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 1 missed tackle, 10 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per game).

Despite all evidence to the contrary, the Broncos continue to select the underperforming McCullough and Boyd in critical play making roles.

While the absence of Haas is a big blow, the unavailability of Glenn, Gillett and Bird, who have all been atrocious defensively this season and relatively unproductive offensivey, is a blessing in disguise for the Broncos. Unfortunately, there still remains clear and repeated failing in the side the Broncos has selected for the clash versus the Roosters (i.e. a lack of line breaks, line break assists and kicking metres from his chosen fullback (Boyd) and hooker (McCullough); a lack of run metres and/or line breaks amongst his chosen centres (Opacic and Roberts) and one of the wingers (Isaako); a lack of run metres in one of the chosen second rowers (Su’A); and a lack of run metres and offloads from one of the starting props (Thaiday) and a bench forward (Sims)). That combined with the non-selection of more productive players (Carrigan, Fai, Seve, Pearson, Dargan and Scarlett) and the Roosters impressive performance versus the Warriors, leads me to predict that the Broncos will suffer another loss versus the Bondi based club.

Freddie08

The stats referenced in this post are sourced from the NRL and QRL.