Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Kontoni Staggs, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 10 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 8 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Glenn, Gillett, Savelio, Taueli, McGuire and Kahu unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 11 clash versus the Roosters would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Marion Seve
4. Gehamat Shibaski
5. Jonus Pearson
6. Sam Scarlett
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Jnr
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Darius Boyd
15. Sam Tagataese
16. Patrick Mago
17. Jaydn Su’A

Freddie08

Another disappointing defeat for the Broncos as they were beaten by Manly 38 – 24 at Suncorp Stadium.

In terms of the Broncos’ squad for the match, Bennett promoted Nikorima from the bench to replace the out of form Bird in the halves, alongside Milford. Rather than drop Bird from the match day squad, Bennett elected shift the New South Welshman into to the centres, alongside Roberts, and at the expense of the more defensively solid Opacic. Despite significantly underperforming this season, Bennett once again went with Boyd and McCullough in the fullback and hooking roles. In the second row, Bennett elected to persist with the improving Su’A and the defensively porous Glenn on the edges, with the solid and energetic Pangai Jnr filling the lock role. In the front row, Bennett persisted with the productive Lodge and underperforming Thaiday. On the bench Bennett retained the impressive Haas and Ofahengaue as well as the underperforming Sims and Opacic.

As for the Broncos’ on field performance versus Manly, the Broncos’ defence was terrible, with a whopping 48 missed tackles.

That was thanks in no small part to 8 individual Broncos players who missed at least 3 tackles each (Boyd, Isaako and Glenn (3), Bird, Nikorima and Su’A (5), and McCullough and Sims (6)).

While a significant portion of the team’s defending was horrendous, credit needs to be given to Ofahengaue, Pangai Junior, Lodge and Oates, who each only missed 1 tackle for the match.

In attack, Pangai Junior (163), Oates (141), Su’A (140) and Lodge (122) were excellent in terms of their contribution to the Broncos’ go forward, amassing well in excess of 100 run metres each. While the run metre contribution of Ofahengaue (103) was also respectable, and youngster Haas only lasted 9 minutes, before succumbing to another injury which ended his involvement, Boyd (98), Glenn (88), Roberts (81) and Isaako (76) all underwhelmed with their respective efforts, while the production level of Thaiday (52), Bird (28), Sims (22) and Opacic (12) was simply unacceptable.

The repeated lack of run metres from the likes of Bird, Opacic, Thaiday and Sims in particular, and the nepotism Bennett is showing in refusing to give opportunities to the likes of Seve, Shibasaki, Fai and Tagataese, who are all excelling in the Intrust Super Cup, is bordering on negligence from the Broncos’ coach.

In terms of offloads, it was another disappointing effort from the Broncos, with only 9 offloads from their 34 sets for the match.

While the lack of offloads didn’t prevent the Broncos from scoring points against Manly, there are serious questions as to whether the Broncos could repeatedly score tries via those same attacking plays match after match (e.g. a dummy half scoot and barged effort close to Manly’s try line, a freak chip kick play from Nikorima and Milford, and individual brilliance from Roberts for Isaako try).

With halves Milford and Nikorima lacking the creative passing game to regularly generate line breaks through their slight of hand with the ball, but blessed with excellent footwork and acceleration, the creation of second phase play, via offloads, and the ensuing disorganisation in the opposition’s defence, appears to be the most logical attacking strategy to accentuate Milford and Nikorima’s strengths and give them the best opportunity to regular break the opposition’s defensive line or take advantage of simpler line break assist opportunities.

In terms of the Broncos’ kicking game versus Manly, there was regression in the team’s overall production, in contrast to the side’s recent effort versus the Bulldogs (553 metres versus the Bulldogs, and executed 7 grubber kicks, from which they forced 2 drop outs).

In total, the Broncos kicked for 420 metres versus Manly, and only executed 2 grubber kicks, from which they failed to force a drop out.

While Milford was again very good (299 kicking metres) and Nikorima’s contribution was solid (99 kicking metres), the contribution by Boyd (0 kicking metres) and McCullough (0 kicking metes) and the lack of any forced drop outs was very disappointing.  It is an aspect of the Broncos’ attacking strategy where Boyd and McCullough have struggled to contribute all season, and drastic improvements from those two players, in particular, is required, if they are to be repeatedly selected in the fullback and hooking role.

Overall, it was a poor performance from the Broncos versus Manly, characterised by terrible defending from Boyd, Isaako and Glenn, but particularly, Bird, Nikorima, Su’A, McCullough and Sims.

While in attack, there was some promising performances from Su’A and Pengai Junior, as well as the usual suspects Lodge and Oates, the Broncos lack of a coherent attacking strategy does not bode well for the future, and at least 2 of the Broncos tries versus Manly (McCullough and Thaiday) were very suspect.

Personnel and tactical changes are urgently needed if the Broncos hold any hope of turning their season around. Positively, the likes of Scarlett, Dargan, Seve, Shibasaki, Pearson, Mosese Pangai, Carrigan, Fai and Tagataese all waiting in the wings and consistently producing in the Intrust Super Cup. Unfortunately, nepotism is evidently rife within the Broncos as repeatedly underperforming players such as Boyd, Isaako, Roberts, Bird, McCullough, Thaiday, Glenn, Sims and Opacic are continually selected. That fault squarely sits with the coach, and with Bennett notoriously stubborn, I don’t expect to see any changes in personnel or on field performances anytime soon.

Freddie08

The stats and images referenced in this post are sourced from http://www.nrl.com.

The Broncos have announced the following preliminary side to take on Manly at Suncorp Stadium:

1. Darius Boyd
2. Corey Oates
3. James Roberts
4. Jack Bird
5. Jamayne Isaako
6. Anthony Milford
7. Kodi Nikorima
8. Matt Lodge
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Sam Thaiday
11. Alex Glenn
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Tevita Pangai Jnr
14. Payne Haas
15. Joe Ofahengaue
16. Korbin Sims
17. Tom Opacic

Reaction

Same old same old from Bennett, who continues to marginalise those players from outside his favoured 17 man match day squad, who are excelling in the Intrust Super Cup, in preference of selecting persistently underperforming players such as Bird, Thaiday, Glenn, Su’A, Sims and Opacic.

In terms of the individual positional groups, starting with the halves, hooker and fullback contingent, Bennett has finally reacted to Bird’s persistent underperformance in the halves, by replacing the New South Welshman (who is averaging 0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 3 missed tackles, 36 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per game) with the more penetrative and defensively secure Nikorima (who is averaging 1 line break, 0 line break assists, 2 missed tackles, 86 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per match).

While Bird’s removal from the starting halves, hooker and fullback contingent is a positive one for the Broncos, Boyd and McCullough somehow continue to be selected. This is despite:

• ranking 5th (McCullough) and 6th (Boyd), out of the Broncos’ 9 contracted players in the halves, hooker and fullback positional group, in terms of production in the key performance areas of line breaks, line break assists, missed tackles, kicking metres and forced drop outs;
• both players failing to contribute a line break or line break assist per match so far this season; and
• both players failing to meaningfully contribute to the Broncos’ kicking game (Boyd is averaging 11 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per game, while McCullough is averaging 53 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per match).

In terms of Milford’s selection, while he continues failing to contribute this season in terms of per match line breaks (0) and line break assists (0), his defensive performances have been at an acceptable 2 missed tackles per game standard and he has been an excellent contributor in terms of kicking metres (averaging 290 kicking metres per game) and forced drop outs (1 per match).

While Milford’s and Nikorima’s relative contribution this season, in the key performance areas of line breaks, line breaks assists, missed tackles, kicking metres and forced drop outs, has been sufficient to justify their selection in the halves, hooker and fullback positional group, when you contrast the per game production of Scarlett (1 line break, 1 line break assist, 3 missed tackles, 227 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out for the Souths-Logan Magpies) and Dargan (0 line breaks, 1 line break assist, 2 missed tackles, 151 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out for the Norths Devils) to that of Boyd and McCullough, the latter’s selection seems an ongoing misjudgement from Bennett.

In terms of Bennett’s selections in the centre and winger positional group:

• Oates, who has this season averaged 138 run metres, 1 line break and 1 missed tackle per match, was an easy decision to make.
• It terms of Isaako (88 run metres, 0 line breaks and 1 missed tackle per game) and Roberts (77 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per match), while both players have demonstrated that they are defensively secure, neither player has sufficiently contributed to the Broncos’ run metres.
• The selection of the out of sorts Bird (who has been averaging only 55 run metres, 0 line breaks and 3 missed tackles per game) over the equally underwhelming but more defensively secure Opacic (who is averaging 62 run metres, 0 line breaks and 1 missed tackle per match), reeks of a decision based on the exorbitant salary the Broncos are paying Bird, rather than a decision based on Bird’s on field production.

Given the per game contribution this season of Isaako, Roberts and Bird, in the key performance areas of run metres, line breaks, and missed tackles, and the comparative performances this season of Seve (who is averaging 149 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies), Shibasaki (who is averaging 137 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per game for the Norths Devils), and Pearson (who is averaging 118 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per match for the Redcliffe Dolphins), Bennett’s selection of Isaako, Opacic and Roberts in the centre and winger positional group for the Manly clash, seems illogical.

Regarding the forward positional group, while McGuire remains unavailable through injury, Bennett’s selection of Haas (who is averaging 138 run metres, 0 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Wynnum Manly Sea Eagles), Lodge (who is averaging 122 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game for the Broncos), Ofahengaue (who is averaging 102 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per game for the Broncos) and Pangai Jnr (who is averaging 96 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 1 offload per game for the Broncos) is justifiable given their relative contribution in the key performance areas of run metres, missed tackles and offloads.  That said, Bennett’s persistent selection of the underperforming Su’A, Sims, Thaiday and Glenn, remains perplexing.

Out of the contracted Broncos’ forwards, Su’A, Sims, Glenn and Thaiday are currently ranked 12th, 14th, 16th and 18th, in terms of on field production.  Looking closer at the respective production level of each player:

• For Su’A, while he has been solid defensively (averaging only 1 missed tackle per game) and has contributed to generating some second phase football (1 offload per game), which is crucial to the attacking effectiveness of the Broncos’ halves, hooker and fullback, the young New Zealander has failed to generate sufficient run metres (only averaging 79 metres per match) to justify his selection ahead of more productive forwards in the Broncos’ broader squad (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese, Staggs and Mago).
• Concerning Sims, while Sims’ per game run metre production (80 run metres) remains marginally superior to Su’A’s, and his defensive effort so far this season has been acceptable (2 missed tackles per game), Sims has failed to demonstrate his ability and/or intent to offload the ball (averaging 0 offloads per match).  Given the superior run metre and offload production of Sims’ internal competition (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese, Staggs, Mago, Flegler) and their at least equivalency to Sims’ defensive performances, Sims’ repeated selection doesn’t appear to be justified.
• Regarding Glenn’s selection, while the New Zealander has shown improved production in recent weeks in terms of run metres, like Thaiday and Sims, Glenn has failed to contribute in terms of generating second phase football (0 offloads per game). More concerning though is the high number of tackles Glenn is continuing to miss per match (4 missed tackles). Given the reduced amount of missed tackles and superior run metre and offload production of Glenn’s internal competition (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese), Glenn’s selection doesn’t appear to be warranted.
• As for Thaiday, while he has been solid defensively (averaging only 1 missed tackle per game), the experienced forward has failed to contribute both in terms of generating second phase football (0 offloads per game) and sufficient run metres (only averaging 58 metres per match). Thaiday’s repeated selection despite his ongoing poor offensive performances has been a issue for the Broncos for a couple of seasons, and his contribution thus far this season, relative to that of other forwards in the broader Broncos’ squad (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese, Staggs, Mago, Flegler, Su’A Sims, Gillett (when fit) and Funaki), clearly demonstrates that Thaiday should not be being selected in the 17 man match day squad.

In terms of potential alternatives Bennett could have, and arguably should have, selected ahead of Su’A, Sims, Glenn and Thaiday, the relative per game production this season of the following players, indicate that they warrant selection ahead of that quartet:

• in the second row, Carrigan, who is averaging 122 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Wynnum Manly Sea Eagles;
• at prop or in a bench prop role, Fai, who is averaging 112 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies;
• at prop or in a bench prop role, Tagataese, who is averaging 100 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Norths Devils;
• in a bench second row role, Staggs, who is averaging 86 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Redcliffe Dolphins.

As has been evidence in the Broncos’ performance in the opening 9 rounds of the NRL, there are clear and repeated failing in the side Bennett has selected (i.e. a lack of line breaks, line break assists and kicking metres from his chosen fullback (Boyd) and hooker (McCullough); a lack of run metres and/or line breaks amongst his chosen centres (Bird and Roberts) and one of the wingers (Isaako); a lack of run metres or offloads or too many missed tackles in the chosen second row (Su’A and Glenn); and a lack of run metres and offloads from one of the starting props (Thaiday) and a bench forward (Sims)). Given that and Manly improved showing versus the Roosters in Round 8,  I’m anticipating that the Broncos will suffer another loss.

Freddie08

The stats referenced in this post are sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Kontoni Staggs, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 9 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 8 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Haas, Gillett, Savelio, Taueli, McGuire and Kahu unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 10 clash versus Manly would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Marion Seve
4. Gehamat Shibaski
5. Jonus Pearson
6. Sam Scarlett
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. George Fai
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Jnr
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Darius Boyd
15. Sam Tagataese
16. Patrick Mago
17. Kontoni Staggs

Freddie08

A scrappy victory for the Broncos as they ousted the Bulldogs 22-20 in a close match at Suncorp stadium.

In terms of the Broncos’ squad for the match, youngster Haas was reward for his encouraging NRL debut versus South Sydney, as he retained his spot on the bench for the Broncos.  Elsewhere, Milford (Five-eighth), Bird (Halfback), McCullough (Hooker) and Boyd (Fullback) made up what has been a largely unproductive halves, hooker and fullback combination. In the outside backs, Isaako (Right Wing) and Oates (Left Wing) occupied the wing positions and Roberts (Right Centre) and Opacic (Left Centre) once again filled the centre roles. In the forwards, the impressive Lodge (Prop) and underperforming Thaiday (Prop) were given the responsibility of leading the Broncos’ forward pack, with the energetic Pangai Jnr (Lock) assuming McGuire’s regular starting position, and the underwhelming Su’A (Right Second Row) and defensively porous Glenn (Left Second Row) completing the Broncos’ starting line-up. On the bench, apart from Haas, Bennett elected to go with the impressive Ofahengaue (Bench Forward), underperforming Sims (Bench Forward), and Nikorima (Utility).

As for the Broncos’ on field performance versus the Bulldogs, the Broncos’ defence was excellent, only missing 14 tackles for the match.

While Lodge’s defensive effort (3 missed tackles) was underwhelming, he was the only Broncos player to miss more than 2 tackles during the game (the acceptable standard of missed tackles per match). Even the defensively porous Glenn, who had been averaging 5 missed tackles per match in the lead up to the Bulldogs clash, showed substantial improvement, only missing a solitary tackle for the match. A special mention should also go to Boyd, McCullough, Nikorima, Opacic, Roberts and Isaako, who didn’t miss a tackle during the game.

In attack, Lodge (180 run metres), Oates (171 run metres), Pangai Jnr (146 run meters), Su’A (128 run metres), Roberts (120 run metres) and Ofahengaue (115 run metres), were all excellent in their contributions to the Broncos’ go forward, contributing well in excess of 100 run metres each. While the run metre contribution of Isaako (109 run metres), Glenn (93 run metres) and Boyd (91 run metres) was admirable, and youngster Haas only lasted 7 minutes, before succumbing to injury which ended his involvement, Opacic (87 run metres), Sims (66 run metres) and Thaiday (61 run metres) were very disappointing in terms of their contribution.

While Su’A, Glenn, Roberts and Isaako, in particular, showed improvement in their contribution, the lack of run metres once again from Thaiday, Opacic and Sims, combined with Bennett’s refusal to give opportunities to the likes of Carrigan, Seve and Fai, who are all excelling in the Intrust Super Cup, was disappointing.

In terms of offloads, it was a much-improved effort from the Broncos, with 12 offloads for the match.

While Pangai Jnr (3 offloads) and Su’A (2 offloads) led the way in offloads for the Broncos, Boyd, Milford, Bird, McCullough and Nikorima weren’t able to make the most of the disorganisation in the Bulldogs’ defensive line, to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or take advantage of simple line break assist opportunities.

While the 12 offloads the Broncos produced were a significant improvement on the side’s’ recent efforts, more is needed, particularly from the Broncos’ forward pack. A lack of offloads has been a significant contributor to the Broncos’ stuttering attack so far this season, with the Bennett instead relying on moments of individual brilliance from select players to enable the team to score points.  Versus the Bulldogs, it was Boyd (a double cut-out pass to Oates), Glenn (a lovely angled run off a regulation pass from Milford) and Roberts (a well-timed short pass to Ofahengaue), who were the key point scoring contributors.

That said, relying on individual players to display moments of brilliance match after match in order for their team to score points, is an unsustainable attacking strategy (as the Broncos have proven this season).

Unfortunately, Bennett and the players don’t seem to be learning from their mistakes and playing to the strengths of their key playmakers (Milford, Bird and Nikorima). Until that happens, the Broncos’ stuttering attack is unlikely to improve.

In terms of the Broncos’ kicking game versus the Bulldogs, there was a further improvement on the Broncos’ recent performance versus South Sydney (539 kicking metres and 4 forced drop outs).

In total, the Broncos kicked for 553 metres versus the Bulldogs, and executed 7 grubber kicks, from which they forced 2 drop outs.

While Milford’s contribution to the Broncos’ kicking game was again excellent (380 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out), the contribution of Bird (19 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs), McCullough (57 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out), Boyd (18 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs) and Nikorima (24 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs) was again disappointing.

Overall, it was a much-improved performance from the Broncos, with a substantial reduction in missed tackles and an increased volume of quality run metres and offloads from a number of the Broncos’ forwards. That said, more offloads are needed from the Broncos forward pack, along with:

• an increased volume of line breaks and line break assists from the Broncos chosen halves, hooker and fullback,
• greater run metre production from Thaiday, Sims and Opacic, and
• improved contribution to the kicking game from Boyd, Bird, McCullough and Nikorima.

In the past 2 rounds, versus the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs, the Broncos halve won ugly. That can be the sign of a champion team or a poor team who has run into some dumb luck. Given the ongoing stuttering nature of the Broncos’ attack, and the consistently poor defensive play of a number of Broncos players so far this season, its difficult to believe the current Broncos are a premiership elect side who are just winning ugly at present.

Objectively, significant improvements in a number of facets of the Broncos play is required, before the Broncos can genuinely be considered a potential premiership winner this season.

Freddie08

The stats and images referenced in this post are sourced from http://www.nrl.com.

In a blow to the Broncos’ future prospects, Fox Sports are reporting that South Sydney have signed talented outside back Corey Allan, for the 2019 season.

Currently plying his trade at fullback for the Souths-Logan Magpies in the Intrust Super Cup, the talented 19 year has impressed so far this season, averaging 90 run metres per game and only 1 missed tackle.

With his per game production this season, exceeding that of fellow Broncos contracted outside backs, Moses Pangai, Kontoni Staggs, Jamayne Isaako, James Roberts, Tom Opacic, Jack Bird and Jordan Kahu, but no first team opportunities forthcoming at the Broncos, it is understandable Allan has elected to pursue first grade opportunities elsewhere.

It is unclear how long his contract is with South Sydney, but Anthony Seibold and the Rabbitohs have acquired a very talent young player capable of playing fullback, wing, centre or in the halves.

Allan’s departure is another disappointing moment for Bennett and the Broncos’ recruitment and retention team. In recent seasons, Bennett has overseen the departure of highly productive Queensland born players Ben Barba, Tautau Moga, Ashley Taylor, Matt Parcell, Jake Granville, Jarrod Wallace, Jai Arrow and Herman Ese Ese.

Obviously salary cap restraints mean the Broncos can’t retain all players. That said, the unproductive on field performances this season from the likes of Darius Boyd, James Roberts, Tom Opacic, Jack Bird, Andrew McCullough, Sam Thaiday, Matt Gillett, Alex Glenn, Jaydn S’uA and Korbin Sims, coupled with the recent pursuit of interstate born players Korbin Sims, Matt Lodge, James Roberts, Pangai Jnr and Troy Dargan, are concerning trends.

As a member of the club since its foundation, I fear these recent trends (i.e. not giving opportunities to promising youngsters, when their on field production is superior to that of the club’s more experienced and tenured players, and not prioritising the recruitment and retention of highly productive Queensland born players) is indicative of a coach and club breaking with the traditions which made the Broncos great.

Freddie08

The Broncos have announced the following preliminary side to take on the Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium:

1. Darius Boyd
2. Corey Oates
3. James Roberts
4. Tom Opacic
5. Jamayne Isaako
6. Anthony Milford
7. Jack Bird
8. Matt Lodge
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Sam Thaiday
11. Alex Glenn
12. Jayd’n Su’A
13. Tevita Pangai Jnr
14. Payne Haas
15. Joe Ofahengaue
16. Kodi Nikorima
17. Korbin Sims

Reaction

More of the same from Bennett, who continues to select experienced but persistently underperforming players, rather than give opportunities to players from outside his favoured 17 man match day squad, who are excelling in the Intrust Super Cup.

In terms of the individual positional groups, starting with the halves, hooker and fullback contingent, Boyd and Bird continue to be selected despite:

• ranking 6th (Boyd) and 9th (Bird), out of the Broncos’ 9 contracted players in the halves, hooker and fullback positional group, in terms of production in the key performance areas of line breaks, line break assists, missed tackles, kicking metres and forced drop outs;
• both players failing to contribute a line break or line break assist per match so far this season;
• both players failing to meaningfully contribute to the Broncos’ kicking game (Boyd is averaging 11 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per game, while Bird is averaging 39 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs per match).

As for McCullough’s selection at hooker, while he is solid defensively (missing only 1 tackle per match so far this season), his contribution in terms of per match line breaks (0), line break assists (0), kicking metres (53) and forced drop outs (0) has been very poor.

In terms of Milford’s selection, while he has failed to contribute this season in terms of per match line breaks (0) and line break assists (0), he has improved his defensive effort to an acceptable standard (2 missed tackles per game) and he has been a solid contributor in terms of kicking metres (averaging 273 kicking metres per game) and forced drop outs (1 per game).

While Milford’s contribution to the Broncos’ kicking game is sufficient to justify his selection in the halves, hooker and fullback positional group, when you contrast the per game production of Nikorima (1 line break, 0 line break assists, 2 missed tackles, 95 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs), Dargan (0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 2 missed tackles, 168 kicking metres and 2 forced drop outs for the Norths Devils) and Scarlett (1 line break, 1 line break assists, 3 missed tackles, 232 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out for the Souths-Logan Magpies) to that of Boyd, Bird and McCullough, the latter’s selection seems a gross oversight from Bennett.

In terms of Bennett’s selections in the centre and winger positional group, the selection of Oates (who is averaging 133 run metres, 1 line break and 1 missed tackle per match) is a simply one to make. In terms of Bennett’s other selections in the positional group, Isaako (85 run metres, 0 line breaks and 1 missed tackle per game), Roberts (72 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per match) and Opacic (59 run metres, 0 line breaks and 1 missed tackle per game) have all demonstrated that they are defensively secure, but have been unable to sufficiently contribute to the Broncos’ run metres. Given that, and the comparative performances this season of Seve (who is averaging 146 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies), Pearson (who is averaging 118 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per match for the Redcliffe Dolphins) and Shibasaki (who is averaging 116 run metres, 1 line break and 2 missed tackles per game for the Norths Devils), Bennett’s repeated selection of Isaako, Opacic and Roberts in the centre and winger positional group, is questionable to say the least.

Regarding the forward positional group, while McGuire is unavailable through injury, Bennett’s selection of Haas (who is averaging 138 run metres, 0 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Wynnum Manly Sea Eagles), Lodge (who is averaging 115 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game for the Broncos), Ofahengaue (who is averaging 99 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 0 offloads per game for the Broncos) and Pangai Jnr (who is averaging 88 run metres, 1 missed tackle and 1 offload per game for the Broncos) is justifiable given their relative contribution in the key performance areas of run metres, missed tackles and offloads.  That said, Bennett’s persistent selection of the underperforming Su’A, Sims, Thaiday and Glenn, remains perplexing.

Out of the contracted Broncos’ forwards, Su’A, Sims, Thaiday and Glenn are currently ranked 12th, 14th, 17th and 18th, in terms of on field production.  Looking closer at the respective production level of each player:

• For Su’A, while he has been solid defensively (averaging only 1 missed tackle per game) and has contributed to generating some second phase football (1 offload per game), which is crucial to the attacking effectiveness of the Broncos’ halves, hooker and fullback, the young New Zealander has failed to generate sufficient run metres (only averaging 70 metres per match) to justify his selection ahead of more productive forwards in the Broncos’ broader squad (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese, Staggs and Mago).
• Concerning Sims, while Sims’ per game run metre production (79 run metres) is marginally superior to Su’A’s, and his defensive effort so far this season has been acceptable (2 missed tackles per game), Sims has failed to demonstrate his ability and/or intent to offload the ball (averaging 0 offloads per match).  Given the superior run metre and/or offload production of Sims’ internal competition (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese, Staggs, Mago, Flegler) and their equivalency to Sims’ defensive performances, Sims’ repeated selection doesn’t appear to be justified.
• As for Thaiday, while he has been solid defensively (averaging only 1 missed tackle per game), the experienced forward has failed to contribute both in terms of generating second phase football (0 offloads per game) and sufficient run metres (only averaging 57 metres per match). Thaiday’s repeated selection despite his ongoing poor offensive performances has been a issue for the Broncos for a couple of seasons, and his contribution thus far this season, relative to that of other forwards in the broader Broncos’ squad (e.g. Carrigan, Fai, Tagataese, Staggs, Mago, Flegler, Su’A Sims, Gillett (when fit) and Funaki), clearly demonstrates that Thaiday should not be being selected in the 17 man match day squad.
• Regarding Glenn’s selection, while the New Zealander has shown improved production in recent weeks in terms of run metres, which has pushed his per game run metre production to 92 run metres, like Thaiday and Sims, Glenn has failed to contribute in terms of generating second phase football (0 offloads per game). More concerning though is the high number of tackles Glenn is missing per match (5 missed tackles). This has been a consistent issue for Glenn this season and in recent seasons, is rooted in Glenn’s poor tackling technique, and is resulting in the Broncos conceding tries and run metres on their left edge of defence (despite Milford and Opacic’s best defensive efforts).  If the Broncos have any aspirations of winning the NRL Premiership, they cannot afford to continue selecting a forward who is that defensively poor, irrespective of his solid per game run metre contribution.

In terms of potential alternatives Bennett could have, and arguably should have, selected ahead of Su’A, Sims, Thaiday and Glenn, the relative per game production this season of the following players, indicate that they warrant selection ahead of that quartet:

• in the second row, Carrigan, who is averaging 122 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Wynnum Manly Sea Eagles;
• at prop or in a bench prop role, Fai, who is averaging 112 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies;
• at prop or in a bench prop role, Tagataese, who is averaging 100 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Norths Devils;
• in a bench second row role, Staggs, who is averaging 86 run metres, 2 missed tackles and 1 offload per match for the Redcliffe Dolphins.

While there are glaring weaknesses in the side Bennett has selected (i.e. a lack of line breaks, line break assists and kicking metres from his chosen fullback (Boyd), halfback (Bird) and hooker (McCullough); a lack of run metres and/or line breaks amongst his chosen centres (Opacic and Roberts) and one of the wingers (Isaako); a lack of run metres or offloads or too many missed tackles in the chosen second row (Su’A and Glenn); and a lack of run metres and offloads from one of the starting props (Thaiday) and a bench forward (Sims)), given the Bulldogs’ woeful start to the season, I’m anticipating that the Broncos will eek out a close victory.

Freddie08

The stats referenced in this post are sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Following each round of the NRL Premiership and Intrust Super Cup, each contracted Broncos player’s season-to-date performance is analysed and ranked against their internal competition.

This analysis process initially categorises players into one of three positional categories (with the exception of Corey Oates, Darius Boyd, Jack Bird and Kontoni Staggs, who are each considered in two positional categories due to their versatility):

• forwards
• centres and wingers
• halves, hooker and fullback.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category is then considered, using data sourced from the NRL and QRL.

Different weightings are then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of the Broncos’ tactical basis is as follows:

• To minimise missed tackles (=<2 missed tackles per player per game) in all positional categories.
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple offloads per game from each player in the forward positional group (to create second phase play for the halves, hooker and/or fullback to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or create line break opportunities for the centre and wing positional group).
• To generate 100+ run metres and multiple line breaks per game from each player within the centre and wing positional group.
• To have at least 2 long kicking options and 2 short kicking options amongst the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

The findings provide an invaluable insight as to:

• how each player ranks against their internal competition within their positional category; and
• which 17 players make up the Broncos’ most productive team.

Internal player rankings

Following Round 8 of the NRL and Intrust Super Cup, the player rankings are as follows:

Forwards

Centres and wingers

Halves, hooker and fullback

Round 8 lineup

Based on the above analytical comparison, and with Gillett, Savelio, Taueli, McGuire, Kahu and McCullough unavailable through injury, the 17 players which comprise the Broncos’ most productive team for their Round 9 clash versus the Bulldogs would appear to be:

1. Anthony Milford
2. Corey Oates
3. Marion Seve
4. Gehamat Shibaski
5. Jonus Pearson
6. Sam Scarlett
7. Troy Dargan
8. Matt Lodge
9. Kodi Nikorima
10. Payne Haas
11. Patrick Carrigan
12. Tevita Pangai Jnr
13. Joe Ofahengaue
14. Darius Boyd
15. Sam Tagataese
16. George Fai
17. Kontoni Staggs

Freddie08

A much needed victory for the Broncos as they bested South Sydney 24-20 in a close match at ANZ stadium.

In terms of the Broncos’ squad for the match, youngster Haas was given his NRL debut, as he started on the bench in place of the unlucky Tagataese, who was dropped by Bennett from the match day squad.  Elsewhere, Milford (Five-eighth), Bird (Halfback), McGuire (Hooker) and Boyd (Fullback) made up an unlikely halves, hooker and fullback combination. In the outside backs, Isaako (Right Wing) and Oates (Left Wing) occupied the wing positions and Roberts (Right Centre) and Opacic (Left Centre) filled the centre roles. In the forwards, the impressive Lodge (Prop) and underperforming Thaiday (Prop) were given the responsibility of leading the Broncos’ forward pack, with the energetic Pangai Jnr (Lock) assuming McGuire’s regular starting position and the underwhelming Su’A (Right Second Row) and out of form Glenn (Left Second Row) completing the Broncos’ starting line up. On the bench, apart from Haas, Bennett elected to go with the impressive Ofahengaue (Bench Forward), underperforming Sims (Bench Forward), and Nikorima (Utility).

As for the Broncos’ on field performance versus the Rabbitohs, the Broncos’ defence were by in large poor, with 31 missed tackles in total.

Glenn’s dreadful defensive performances this season continued versus the Rabbitohs with 6 missed tackles (mt), while McGuire (4mts), Sims (3mts), Thaiday (3mts), Roberts (3mts) and Bird (3mts) were also poor defensively. Conversely, Ofahengaue and Boyd’s impressive  defensive form continued with neither player missing a tackle versus South Sydney. Nikorima (0mts), Pangai Jnr (0mts), Su’A (1mts) and Milford (2mts) also delivered much improved defensive efforts.

In attack, Oates (224 run metres (rms)), Boyd (149rms), Glenn (129rms) and Pangai Jnr (123rms) were excellent, contributing well in excess of 100 run metres each. While the run metre contribution of Sims (106rms), Ofahengaue (106rms) and Su’A (97m) was admirable and youngster Haas (68rms) impressed in his 20 minutes cameo, McGuire (71rms), Roberts (69rms), Thaiday (62rms), Opacic (59rms) and Isaako (50rms) were very disappointing in terms of their contribution.

While Su’A and Sims, in particular, showed improvement in their contribution, the lack of run metres once again from Opacic, Thaiday and Roberts, combined with Bennett’s refusal to give opportunities to the likes of Seve, Pearson and Tagataese, who are all excelling in the Intrust Super Cup, was very disappointing.

In terms of offloads, it was a very disappointing effort from the Broncos, with only 4 offloads for the match.

The lack of offloads from the Broncos’ forwards starved Milford, Bird and Nikorima of the second phase football those players crave to showcase their excellent footwork and acceleration, and to individually break the opposition’s defensive line or take advantage of simple line break assist opportunities.

Ironically, of the 4 offloads the Broncos did manage to make, 1 resulted in a line break and try to Oates, and another resulted in a disallowed try to Nikorima, following the young New Zealander’s ensuing line break.

While a lack of offloads, particularly amongst the Broncos’ forward pack, has been a significant contributor to the Broncos’ stuttering attack so far this season, the players and coach don’t seem to be learning from their mistakes.

Instead the Broncos’ attack was again indebted to moments of individual brilliance from select Broncos players, with Oates (3 line breaks, a try and a grubber kick for Boyd’s try) and Nikorima (2 line breaks and a try) the key contributors.

That said, relying on individual players to display moments of brilliance match after match in order for their team to score points, is an unsustainable attacking strategy.

Unfortunately it doesn’t appear as though the Broncos’ unimaginative attacking approach is likely to change anytime soon.

In terms of the Broncos’ kicking game versus South Sydney, there was a significant improvement on the Broncos’ recent performances versus the Warriors (447 kicking metres and 2 forced drop outs) and Storm (341 kicking metres and 0 forced drop outs).

In total, the Broncos kicked for 539 metres versus the Rabbitohs, and executed 9 grubber kicks, from which they scored 2 tries and forced 4 drop outs.

While Milford’s contribution to the Broncos’ kicking game was excellent (319 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out) and Bird showed improved productivity (110 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out), the contribution of Nikorima (55 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out) and Boyd (33 kicking metres and 1 forced drop out) was underwhelming.

Overall, it was an improved performance from the Broncos in contrast to their prior match versus the Storm. An increased volume of quality run metres from a number of the Broncos’ forwards and improved kicking production, both in terms of grubbers and long distance kicking, enabled the Broncos to win the field and possession battle against South Sydney.

That said, concerns remain regarding:

• the unacceptably high number of missed tackles from the Broncos
• the unsustainable manner in which the Broncos scored their tries
• the minimal number of offloads produced by the chosen forwards, and
• the poor run metre contribution from certain forwards and outside backs.

Moving forward, these are facets of the Broncos’ play that will need to drastically improve if the Broncos genuinely harbour desires of winning the NRL Premiership this season.

Freddie08

The stats and images referenced in this post are sourced from http://www.nrl.com.

The Broncos have announced the following preliminary side to take on South Sydney at ANZ Stadium:

Reaction

A conservative coach who relies on low risk offensive football and hard hitting defence, Bennett seems notoriously reluctant to give opportunities to highly productive players from outside his favoured 17 man match day squad. No better is this evidenced than when regular match day players suffer injuries, ruling them out of selection contention. When this occurs Bennett appears to have a tendency to look for solutions exclusive within his favoured match day playing group, even if that means deploying players out of position and ignoring specialised and highly productive players in the broader Broncos’ squad. Thaiday’s failed stint at hooker (to cover McCullough’s return from injury), Bird’s redeployment into the halves (to cover Nikorima’s injury), and now McGuire’s deployment to the hooking role (to cover McCullough’s latest injury), are all prime examples of Bennett’s arguably narrow minded approach to team selection.

While I don’t agree with that aspect of Bennett’s approach to team selection, knowing this about the coach (having witnessed it regularly during both of Bennett’s stints with the Broncos) makes his obscure team selection decisions less of a surprise.

That said, a number of the players Bennett has selected in the Broncos’ preliminary 17 for the South Sydney match can count themselves very lucky not to be plying their trade in the Intrust Super Cup this weekend.

In terms of the individual positional groups, starting with the halves, hooker and fullback contingent, Boyd and Bird’s continued selection in that positional group appears illogical. Neither player is averaging a line break (lb) or line break assist (lba) per match so far this season and both have failed to meaningfully contribute to the Broncos’ kicking game, whether it be via long range kicks or forced drop outs (Boyd is averaging 7 kicking metres (kms) and 0 forced drop outs (fds) per game, while Bird is averaging 24kms and 0fds per match).

As for McGuire’s selection at hooker, while he is solid defensively (missing only 2 tackles per match so far this season), his historical performances indicate that in his new role he is not likely to contribute in terms of line breaks, line break assists, kicking metres or forced drop outs.

Given:

• line breaks, line break assists, kicking metres and forced drop outs are key performance deliverables for the halves, hooker and fullback positional group;
• McGuire, Boyd and Bird have been unproductive this season in those facets of the game;
• Milford and Nikorima have at least contributed this season to the Broncos’ kicking game (Milford is averaging 273kms and 1fd per match, while Nikorima is averaging 102kms per game); and
• Dargan and Scarlett have both been in excellent form in the Intrust Super Cup (Dargan is averaging 1lba, 144kms and 2fds per match for the Norths Devils, while Scarlett is average 1lba, 1lb, 240kms and 1fd per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies);

there is a strong case to support the argument that McGuire, Boyd and Bird should not have been selected in the halves, hooker and fullback positional group for the clash versus South Sydney.  Instead a combination of Milford, Nikorima, Dargan and Scarlett appears to be the more logical choice.

While those four players appear to currently be the Broncos most productive option for that positional group, the truth is, the diminutive size of all four individuals, coupled with their historically poor defensive performances (Milford and Nikorima missed an average of 3 tackles per match last season while Scarlett missed an average of 4 tackles), makes all four poorly suited to any position which requires them to operate in the Broncos’ defensive line. Practically, fullback is the only position those four players’ physical attributes and playing tendencies indicate they are capable of playing without their defensive weaknesses being seriously exposed. That said, barring a significant recruitment drive from the Broncos targeting individual players who are productive at:

• generating line breaks and line break assists;
• kicking for significant distances;
• regularly forcing drop outs; and
• defending with a low missed tackle rate;

Milford, Nikorima, Dargan and Scarlett appear, for the time being, to be the Broncos best combination for the halves, hooker and fullback positional group.

In terms of Bennett’s selections in the centre and winger positional group, Isaako (90 run metres (rms) 0lbs and 1 missed tackles (mts) per game), Roberts (72rms, 1lb and 2mts per match) and Opacic (59rms, 0lbs and 1mt per game) have all demonstrated that they are defensively secure, and the selection of Oates (who is averaging 118rms, 1lb and 0mts per match) is a no brainer. That said, the comparative performances this season of Seve (who is averaging 151rms, 0lb and 1mt per game for the Souths-Logan Magpies) and Pearson (who is averaging 126rms, 1lb and 1mts per game for the Redcliffe Dolphins) seem to have been overlooked yet again by Bennett. As has consideration to deploy the versatile Boyd (who is averaging 94rms, 0lbs and 1mts per game) in that positional group. All three players have, on balance, outperformed Bennett’s preferred trio of Isaako, Opacic and Roberts in the key performance metric of per game run metres, line breaks and missed tackles. Despite this Seve and Pearson remain marginalised and Boyd continues to be overlooked for selection for in the Broncos centre and winger positional group.

In the forward positional group, out of the contracted Broncos’ forwards, Su’A, Sims, Thaiday and Glenn are currently ranked 13th, 14th, 17th and 18th, in terms of on field production, with:

• Sims only averaging 77rms per game;
• Glenn and Su’A only averaging 70rms per game;
• Thaiday only contributing 57rms per game;
• Glenn missing an average of 6 tackles per match; and
• only Su’A (of those four players) is averaging an offload per match.

Compare that to the per game production so far this season in the Intrust Super Cup from the likes of Haas (138rms, 0mts and 1 offload), Tagataese (104rms, 1mt, 1 offload), Fai (116rms, 1mt and 1 offload) and Carrigan (116rms per game, 1mt and 1 offload) and Bennett’s repeated selection of Su’A, Sims, Thaiday and Glenn lacks logic.

Overall, given the weaknesses in the side Bennett has selected (i.e. a lack of line breaks, line break assists and kicking metres from his chided fullback (Boyd), halfback (Bird) and hooker (McGuire), a lack of run metres and/or line breaks amongst his chosen centres (Opacic and Roberts) and one of the wingers (Isaako) and a lack of run metres and offloads in the chosen second row (Su’A and Glenn) and one of the bench forwards (Thaiday), I’m anticipating that the Broncos will suffer another loss, this time against the in form Rabbitohs.

Freddie08

The stats referenced in this post are sourced from the NRL and QRL.